Another Extensive Group of |
Highly Improbable Code Findings
The odds of the codes presented in this issue being as extensive as they are, and due to chance, are extremely small. We estimate those odds to be one in
How did we arrive at that conclusion? We did a blind study where we sent a mixture of letter strings from: (1) a non-encoded Hebrew text (a translation of Tolstoy's War and Peace), and (2) from the Hebrew Bible, to Nathan Jacobi, Ph.D., for examination. He had no idea we were doing this. He did find a few short "codes", but far less than he did from the Hebrew Bible. So we know what to expect if we send ELS letter strings from a non-encoded text, and we compare those expectations with what we actually found during all the searches described in this issue. The differences are quite dramatic.
We examined 89 ELSs for extensions and found 31 codes with two or more extensions—even though we would only expect to find 9.26 such longer codes by chance. We found 19 codes with three or more extensions—even though we would only expect to find 2.42 such codes. These and other results are summarized below.
These findings reiterate the pattern we have seen in every other group of code searches BCD has done in the past 10 years. Either there was no extension to an initial ELS term, or if there was an extension, in 31 out of 38 cases, there was yet another extension (or two or more additional extensions). That is a highly non-random pattern. If one extension was found, there was an 81.6% chance that there were additional extensions. THAT'S NOT RANDOM!
The next table summarizes our findings. Even though we would have expected nearly 12 extended ELSs with exactly one extension beyond the original search term, there was only one. In all the other situations, there were more extensions.
The above odds ignore the fact that most of the codes presented in this article consist of content pertinent to the topic of the original search term. In other words, their content isn't just Hebrew words that hang together with acceptable grammar, even if they don't make logical sense. These codes are relevant to the topic of the original search terms. If we were to factor in the probability that the content of these codes would be relevant, the odds would be dramatically more remote. We don't need to attempt to do that, however, because our findings are conclusive—without considering this subjective element.
Out of 281 opportunities Jacobi had to find an extension, he found one 103 times. That's a discovery rate of 36.7%, which is far above the discovery rate observed in non-encoded Hebrew texts (16% to 20%).
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